Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, August 4th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened up slightly following favorable jobs data. Stocks are reacting negatively to the news with the Dow down 119 points and the Nasdaq down 2 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (1.16%), but we likely will not see much of an improvement in this morning’s mortgage rates.



30 yr - 1.16%







Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock



ADP Employment

Today’s only relevant economic data was July's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It showed a surprisingly low 330,000 new private-sector jobs. This was less than half the number that was expected and is a sign the employment sector is even weaker than thought.



ADP Employment

The ADP report has a history of not correlating with the results of the governmental monthly Employment report that is set for release Friday. However, this was a large enough variance from expectations that it raises questions about forecasts for Friday’s release. We can consider this release good news for the bond and mortgage markets, hence the early gains this morning.



Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow has just last week’s unemployment figures scheduled for release. They are expected to show 375,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week’s 400,000 initial filings. Rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness, meaning the higher the number tomorrow, the better it is for mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.